保证案件旨在为其最高主张的真理提供合理的信心，这通常涉及安全或保障。那么一个自然的问题是，案件提供了“多少”信心？我们认为，置信度不能简化为单个属性或测量。取而代之的是，我们建议它应该基于以三种不同观点的属性为基础：正面，消极和残留疑问。积极的观点考虑了该案件的证据和总体论点结合起来的程度，以表明其主张的信念是正当的。我们为理由设置了一个高标准，要求它是不可行的。对此的主要积极度量是健全性，它将论点解释为逻辑证明。对证据的信心可以概率地表达，我们使用确认措施来确保证据的“权重”跨越了一定的阈值。此外，可以通过使用概率逻辑的参数步骤从证据中汇总概率，以产生我们所谓的索赔概率估值。负面观点记录了对案件的怀疑和挑战，通常表示为叛逆者及其探索和解决。保证开发商必须防止确认偏见，并应在制定案件时大力探索潜在的叛逆者，并应记录下来及其解决方案，以避免返工并帮助审阅者。残留疑问：世界不确定，因此并非所有潜在的叛逆者都可以解决。我们探索风险，可能认为它们是可以接受或不可避免的。但是，至关重要的是，这些判断是有意识的判断，并且在保证案例中记录下来。本报告详细介绍了这些观点，并指示了我们的保证2.0的原型工具集如何协助他们的评估。

Self-supervised learning is a popular and powerful method for utilizing large amounts of unlabeled data, for which a wide variety of training objectives have been proposed in the literature. In this study, we perform a Bayesian analysis of state-of-the-art self-supervised learning objectives and propose a unified formulation based on likelihood learning. Our analysis suggests a simple method for integrating self-supervised learning with generative models, allowing for the joint training of these two seemingly distinct approaches. We refer to this combined framework as GEDI, which stands for GEnerative and DIscriminative training. Additionally, we demonstrate an instantiation of the GEDI framework by integrating an energy-based model with a cluster-based self-supervised learning model. Through experiments on synthetic and real-world data, including SVHN, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100, we show that GEDI outperforms existing self-supervised learning strategies in terms of clustering performance by a wide margin. We also demonstrate that GEDI can be integrated into a neural-symbolic framework to address tasks in the small data regime, where it can use logical constraints to further improve clustering and classification performance.

State-of-the-art performance in electroencephalography (EEG) decoding tasks is currently often achieved with either Deep-Learning or Riemannian-Geometry-based decoders. Recently, there is growing interest in Deep Riemannian Networks (DRNs) possibly combining the advantages of both previous classes of methods. However, there are still a range of topics where additional insight is needed to pave the way for a more widespread application of DRNs in EEG. These include architecture design questions such as network size and end-to-end ability as well as model training questions. How these factors affect model performance has not been explored. Additionally, it is not clear how the data within these networks is transformed, and whether this would correlate with traditional EEG decoding. Our study aims to lay the groundwork in the area of these topics through the analysis of DRNs for EEG with a wide range of hyperparameters. Networks were tested on two public EEG datasets and compared with state-of-the-art ConvNets. Here we propose end-to-end EEG SPDNet (EE(G)-SPDNet), and we show that this wide, end-to-end DRN can outperform the ConvNets, and in doing so use physiologically plausible frequency regions. We also show that the end-to-end approach learns more complex filters than traditional band-pass filters targeting the classical alpha, beta, and gamma frequency bands of the EEG, and that performance can benefit from channel specific filtering approaches. Additionally, architectural analysis revealed areas for further improvement due to the possible loss of Riemannian specific information throughout the network. Our study thus shows how to design and train DRNs to infer task-related information from the raw EEG without the need of handcrafted filterbanks and highlights the potential of end-to-end DRNs such as EE(G)-SPDNet for high-performance EEG decoding.

In-context learning (ICL) enables large language models (LLMs) to perform new tasks by prompting them with a sequence of training examples. However, ICL is very sensitive to the choice of training examples: randomly sampling examples from a training set leads to high variance in performance. In this paper, we show that curating a carefully chosen subset of training data greatly stabilizes ICL performance. We propose two methods to choose training subsets, both of which score training examples individually and then select the highest-scoring ones. CondAcc scores a training example by its average ICL accuracy when combined with random training examples, while Datamodels learns a linear proxy model that estimates how the presence of each training example influences LLM accuracy. On average, CondAcc and Datamodels outperform sampling from the entire training set by 7.7% and 6.3%, respectively, across 5 tasks and two LLMs. Our analysis shows that stable subset examples are no more diverse than average, and are not outliers in terms of sequence length and perplexity.

As language models (LMs) scale, they develop many novel behaviors, good and bad, exacerbating the need to evaluate how they behave. Prior work creates evaluations with crowdwork (which is time-consuming and expensive) or existing data sources (which are not always available). Here, we automatically generate evaluations with LMs. We explore approaches with varying amounts of human effort, from instructing LMs to write yes/no questions to making complex Winogender schemas with multiple stages of LM-based generation and filtering. Crowdworkers rate the examples as highly relevant and agree with 90-100% of labels, sometimes more so than corresponding human-written datasets. We generate 154 datasets and discover new cases of inverse scaling where LMs get worse with size. Larger LMs repeat back a dialog user's preferred answer ("sycophancy") and express greater desire to pursue concerning goals like resource acquisition and goal preservation. We also find some of the first examples of inverse scaling in RL from Human Feedback (RLHF), where more RLHF makes LMs worse. For example, RLHF makes LMs express stronger political views (on gun rights and immigration) and a greater desire to avoid shut down. Overall, LM-written evaluations are high-quality and let us quickly discover many novel LM behaviors.

As AI systems become more capable, we would like to enlist their help to supervise other AIs. We experiment with methods for training a harmless AI assistant through self-improvement, without any human labels identifying harmful outputs. The only human oversight is provided through a list of rules or principles, and so we refer to the method as 'Constitutional AI'. The process involves both a supervised learning and a reinforcement learning phase. In the supervised phase we sample from an initial model, then generate self-critiques and revisions, and then finetune the original model on revised responses. In the RL phase, we sample from the finetuned model, use a model to evaluate which of the two samples is better, and then train a preference model from this dataset of AI preferences. We then train with RL using the preference model as the reward signal, i.e. we use 'RL from AI Feedback' (RLAIF). As a result we are able to train a harmless but non-evasive AI assistant that engages with harmful queries by explaining its objections to them. Both the SL and RL methods can leverage chain-of-thought style reasoning to improve the human-judged performance and transparency of AI decision making. These methods make it possible to control AI behavior more precisely and with far fewer human labels.

As causal inference becomes more widespread the importance of having good tools to test for causal effects increases. In this work we focus on the problem of testing for causal effects that manifest in a difference in distribution for treatment and control. We build on work applying kernel methods to causality, considering the previously introduced Counterfactual Mean Embedding framework (\textsc{CfME}). We improve on this by proposing the \emph{Doubly Robust Counterfactual Mean Embedding} (\textsc{DR-CfME}), which has better theoretical properties than its predecessor by leveraging semiparametric theory. This leads us to propose new kernel based test statistics for distributional effects which are based upon doubly robust estimators of treatment effects. We propose two test statistics, one which is a direct improvement on previous work and one which can be applied even when the support of the treatment arm is a subset of that of the control arm. We demonstrate the validity of our methods on simulated and real-world data, as well as giving an application in off-policy evaluation.

In many task settings, text classification models are likely to encounter examples from novel classes on which they cannot predict correctly. Selective prediction, in which models abstain on low-confidence examples, provides a possible solution, but existing models are often overly confident on OOD examples. To remedy this overconfidence, we introduce Contrastive Novelty-Augmented Learning (CoNAL), a two-step method that generates OOD examples representative of novel classes, then trains to decrease confidence on them. First, we generate OOD examples by prompting a large language model twice: we prompt it to enumerate relevant novel labels, then generate examples from each novel class matching the task format. Second, we train our classifier with a novel contrastive objective that encourages lower confidence on generated OOD examples than training examples. When trained with CoNAL, classifiers improve in their ability to detect and abstain on OOD examples over prior methods by an average of 2.3% AUAC and 5.5% AUROC across 4 NLP datasets, with no cost to in-distribution accuracy.

Diffusion models have quickly become the go-to paradigm for generative modelling of perceptual signals (such as images and sound) through iterative refinement. Their success hinges on the fact that the underlying physical phenomena are continuous. For inherently discrete and categorical data such as language, various diffusion-inspired alternatives have been proposed. However, the continuous nature of diffusion models conveys many benefits, and in this work we endeavour to preserve it. We propose CDCD, a framework for modelling categorical data with diffusion models that are continuous both in time and input space. We demonstrate its efficacy on several language modelling tasks.

Using 3D CNNs on high resolution medical volumes is very computationally demanding, especially for large datasets like the UK Biobank which aims to scan 100,000 subjects. Here we demonstrate that using 2D CNNs on a few 2D projections (representing mean and standard deviation across axial, sagittal and coronal slices) of the 3D volumes leads to reasonable test accuracy when predicting the age from brain volumes. Using our approach, one training epoch with 20,324 subjects takes 40 - 70 seconds using a single GPU, which is almost 100 times faster compared to a small 3D CNN. These results are important for researchers who do not have access to expensive GPU hardware for 3D CNNs.